Li Lifeng: Investors Should Not Be Too Pessimistic.

Guo Jin Securities chief strategist Li Lifeng released the latest point of view, for the short-term market, taking into account the current market share of the game characteristics of the market is obvious, the two cities trading volume at the bottom level, with the domestic policy phase warming, the index fell with the release of short selling power (index near 2800-2900 points), investors do not need to be too pessimistic, expect the market in the end of April to early 5 mid month will usher in a rebound.

The recent market decline is due to many factors.

On the one hand, at the end of the month, the market is right.

Worries about uncertainty have been lifted. On the other hand, with the proximity of the "camp to increase" and the frequent occurrence of "default" in the bond market, the risk of the bond market has been exposed, thus dragging the equity market risk preference.

For the short-term market, taking account of the obvious characteristics of the current market stock market, the volume of the two cities is kept at the bottom level. As the domestic policy becomes warmer and warmer, the index declines following the release of short selling power (near the 2800-2900 index), investors should not be too pessimistic. It is expected that the market will rebound in the first half of April to the middle of 5.

From the latest

The time series of US interest rate increase in 2016 shows that the probability of FOMC interest rate increase in April is almost zero.

Yellen said in April 14th that the Fed was unlikely to make any radical moves, especially in view of the lingering uncertainty of the current global economic situation.

This means that the possibility of Yellen changing from "Pigeon" to "Eagle" in a short time is very small.

The US CPI in March was 0.1%, less than 0.2% of the market expectations; core CPI was 2.2%, less than 2.3% of market expectations.

In conclusion, we expect that the whole keynote of the FOMC conference in April will continue to be "doves". The US dollar will fluctuate in a narrow way, the RMB exchange rate will stabilize and the crude oil will rebound.

Recent equity market performance is weak, partly due to concerns about the recent MLF's close to 551 billion maturity.

In the face of the test of the centralization of the MLF and the quarterly tax payment, the central bank invested 680 billion of the funds this week, a record high. This shows the intention of the central bank to maintain the balance between supply and demand of funds, and to smooth the timely fluctuations in time.

This week

The scale of net investment is more than once. However, in view of the short time limit (all 7 days reverse repurchase), it is expected that the central bank will eventually choose to "hedge" to hedge at a certain point.

In the evening of April 21st, the Shanghai Stock Exchange and the Dalian commercial exchange also issued policies to raise the margin standard of major futures varieties. After that, the Zhengzhou commercial exchange also announced that it would resume the paction fee of cotton varieties from the beginning of April 26th.

No doubt, the resumption of "Ping Jin Kong" paction fee is to increase the paction cost of "T+0".

In addition, raising the margin standard can also limit commodity speculation and reduce the expectation of rising inflation based on money, which will help to stabilize the equity market.

In April 22nd, Li Chao, vice chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, pointed out at the International Symposium on personal pension system and practice that a strong pension management system is not only a stabilizer for social development, but also a ballast stone for the healthy development of capital markets. Pension investments urgently need more healthy and stable capital markets. The Ministry of human resources and social affairs also proposed that the current pension market is moving smoothly in the 1Q press conference.

The above statement will help investors to repair their pessimism.

The SFC again approved the first application of 7 enterprises in April 22nd, of which 1 were directly priced. Up to now, the SFC has issued IPO approvals for 45 enterprises.

At present, the rhythm of the issue is still maintained in two batches of each month and 7-9 in each batch, but the total amount of fund raising has increased, and it is expected to be not more than 4 billion 620 million, which is higher than that of the previous single issue (about 2 billion).

The largest number of new shares in the new IPO is the first venture securities. The size of the issue is estimated to be around 1 billion 800 million, the largest issue ever since this year.

Taking into account the low initial selling price of the first venture securities and the small cap stocks in the brokerage sector, it is expected that after listing, the funds will be favored.